Issue 14

11/01/04

The Presidential Election

Issue #14 - The Presidential Election

1. The Reality of Terrorism
2. Presidential Elections and Communism
3. Religious Beliefs and Ethics
4. My Election Prognostication

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Dear Friends,

While it is fundamentally true that the person occupying the
White House has little control over the success and failure
of our investments, the President can create an investment
environment filled with headwinds or tailwinds.

Thus while we cannot blame a President for stocks going up
or down, a President's policies can affect the ease with
which the markets move. With that in mind, let us devote
this issue to Presidential politics.

Before anybody gets ticked off by whatever I say in this
issue, please check my references and realize that I'm
human, just like everyone else, and thus I am speaking from
my background experiences, plus the research I've conducted.
All of this leads me to make comments regarding the current
Presidential race on 3 major fronts, terrorism, freedom &
ethics, before I make my election predictions.

If you just want to hear how I think it's going to go
tomorrow, just scroll down to the last section. But if you
would like to know why I believe what I believe regarding
the candidates for President, then you should read
everything else, too.

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The Reality of Terrorism

The first issue I'm going to tackle is terrorism. Simply
put, America is blessed because it took 80 years for
terrorism to reach our shores. First let's review a history
of terrorism and then discuss the options we have with
regards to potential courses of action.

While some may say that terrorism started in 1978, at the
Iranian Embassy, or in 1972, at the Munich Olympic Games, I
prefer to look all the way back to 1921.

That was the year that the British Governor of Jerusalem
circumvented the Moslem Council and appointed a fugitive,
Amin al-Husseini, as Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. While space
prevents me from going into the details of why Amin was a
fugitive, its his actions after becoming the Grand Mufti
that make him the founder of terrorism as we know it.

As Grand Mufti, Amin organized killings of Jewish settlers
in the 1920s, allied with the German Nazis in the 1930s,
went to Berlin in late 1941 to meet with Hitler and push for
the Final Solution and in 1948 ordered Arabs to flee Israel
so that Arab armies could invade.

Amin topped it all off by founding the PLO and then turned
it all over to his protege and nephew Rahman Abdul Rauf
al-Qudwa al-Husseini, who then assumed the alias Yasser
Arafat.

Getting back to Amin however, we find that before he became
Grand Mufti, nobody referred to ANY Arabs as Palestinians!

Why? Because the name Palestinian is nothing more than a
figment of Amin's imagination.

He created the name so that he could declare Arabs living
between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean as somehow
different from all other Arabs. This then became the
rational behind declaring Jihad on Israel and all her
supporters.

Because of Amin's Nazilike hatred of the Jews, he imbued his
nephew Arafat with the same purpose in life, to "drive
them into the sea." Prior to Amin's ascendency to Grand
Mufti there was no hatred of the Jews amongst mainstream
Arabs, this is evidenced by Arab acceptance of a speech
given by Winston Churchill, who was British Colonial
Secretary at the time, in March of 1921 while in Jerusalem.

Churchill was speaking to a delegation of Moslem Arabs and
this is what he said:

"It is manifestly right that the scattered Jews should have
a national center and a national home to be re-united. And
where else but Palestine, with which for 3,000 years they
have been intimately and profoundly associated? We think it
will be good for the world, good for the Jews, good for the
British Empire, but also good for the Arabs who dwell in
Palestine& (for) we intend that they shall share in the
benefits and progress of Zionism."

Amin al-Husseini and his nephew Yasser Arafat successfully
thwarted this vision of Churchill's, by perpetuating the
myth of Palestinian Arabs to the point where now there are
terrorist organizations in dozens of countries in the Middle
East and around the world, all of whom are dedicated to the
destruction of Israel and America.

Ever since the Vietnam peace movement, led by John Kerry,
was successful in obtaining an American capitulation, in
spite of a military victory on the ground, America's enemies
have openly stated that all that is necessary to defeat
America is to win politically.

This is evidenced by Islamic terrorists' statements that all
they had to do in Lebanon was "kill 15 marines (and) the
rest will leave." This led to the Marine barracks bombing
which killed 241 Americans and our response, or lack
thereof, convinced Osama bin Laden that America didn't have
the stomach to fight him.

During the 1990's, it is a matter of historical record that
Clinton's Administration recognized Arafat as a legitimate
world leader, and failed to recognize Osama as the terrorist
threat that he was, and is. This is evidenced by the
constant negotiations involving Arafat and Clinton, as well
as the refusal to accept custody of Osama, because "we
didn't have enough evidence of his involvement" in the first
World Trade Center attack.

If Arafat truly wanted a Palestinian state why didn't he
accept any of the negotiated territories Israel offered? The
answer is because he doesn't want anything except the total
destruction of Israel.

Returning to Clinton, he also failed to finish the task of
removing Saddam Hussein's WMDs from circulation. Thus while
Saddam may never have consulted with Osama regarding 9/11,
it has been shown that al-Qaeda opperatives met with
significant members of Saddam's government in multiple
attempts to obtain nukes and/or other WMDs.

Additionally, Saddam paid out hundreds of thousands of
dollars to the families of those recruited by Arafat and
Osama to be suicide bombers.

All this leads us to 9/11 and the horror of those attacks,
but because George W. Bush was in office, America hasn't
rolled over and played dead like Osama thought we would.
Instead, since the 9/11 attack on America, Bush has led a
Churchillesque response.

In fact, I would go so far as to equate Bush to Churchill
and Kerry/Clinton to Neville Chamberlain, who believed in
"peace in our time."

This response by Bush has lead to 2/3rds of the Taliban
being killed or captured, the overthrow of Saddam's
murderous regime, the majority of al-Qaeda's leadership
being killed or captured, a refusal to negotiate further
with Arafat, until he renounces the suicide bombers, which
he cannot do ideologically, the liberation of 10's of
millions of Iraqis and Afghanis, and the peacefully held
elections in Afghanistan, which included women voters for
the first time in history.

Anyone who says we invaded Iraq under false pretenses is
arguing for the same scenario that prevented Allied bombers
from destroying the ovens of Auschwitz, at least that's what
Cliff Alsberg, a writer and television producer in Los
Angeles, believes.

You can find his compelling essay here.

As for the extensive evidence that Saddam not only had WMDs,
he also had extensive ties to terrorist organizatons, there
is an excellent movie that graphically displays some
Americans' thoughts on the matter. Don't click through if you
get squeamish!

Celsius 41.11 Trailer

Article regarding Saddam's WMDs.

All of this shows that Bush's record is one of defeating
terrorism, while Kerry's extensive record shows the
opposite. Even non-partisan, unfunded groups, such as these
Vietnam veterans, who decided to document "Myths of the
Vietnam War" and have been able to document conclusively
Kerry's history of appeasement. Here is what they found:
The Boston Manifesto

Kerry has gone so far as to author the book 'The New
Soldier', in which he is openly dishonest regarding the
Vietnam War and the veterans who served therein.

While John Kerry may have served honorably in Vietnam, it is
hard to state that only serving 1/3 of his scheduled tour
is "heroic", after all even Benedict Arnold fought
courageously during the Revolutionary War, before betraying
America.

{Late Breaking Bulletin}

William Middendorf, Secretary of the Navy from April 1974 to
January 1978, is publicly stating that John Kerry needs to
release his discharge papers from the military. The issue
has resurfaced over the possibility that Kerry was Other
Than Honorably (OTH) discharged and fought to have this
reversed while William was SECNAV. Subsequently, when Carter
became president, Kerry secured his honorable discharge from
Middendorf's successor.

WorldNetDaily is already headlining it, as should the
Washington Times tomorrow, and possibly Drudge.

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Presidential Elections and Communism

Most of you know that my background includes over a half
dozen years spent living in Communist China before I turned
16, and a grand total of 8 plus years living in Asia.

As I have stated previously in this newsletter, this
background makes me more sensitive to proposals and
statements that reek of suppression of freedom. With that in
mind, there are 2 items relating to this election that
concern me, suppression of the vote and suppression of free
speech.

So far in this election cycle, we have seen both extremes of
voter suppression, one extreme evidenced by Pennsylvania's
Democrat Governor Ed Rendel's failed attempts to prevent
nearly 26,000 military votes from PA's military personnel
stationed overseas being counted.

To the other extreme, evidenced by the tens of thousands of
lawyers deployed by Kerry, under strict orders to dispute
any election results that are "within the margin of error!"

Would someone please tell me where in the Constitution do
the Founders state, that any election "within the margin of
error" should be subjected to the court system?

Both of these tactics reek of Chinese "elections", whereby
100% of the vote is for the one candidate from the Communist
Party, who is running unopposed.

Obviously, the second tactic is being taken from the same
playbook used first by Al Gore, who didn't learn from
Nixon's narrow loss in 1960, that the graceful thing to do
is concede defeat and then try again later. Instead Gore
attempted to steal the election by first trying to block the
military absentee votes in Florida and then by trying to get
legitimate votes thrown out in Jewish counties.

I'm also appalled by attempts in Colorado by Democrat
operatives to claim racially based voter intimidation, "even
where none exists" by acting "preemptively!"

In fact, Kerry told a rally, six months ago, that
challenging all election results was indeed his plan. John
Fund has put together the full documentation, part of which
is available here:

As for suppression of free speech, I find that while Bush is
slandered in Fahrenheit 9/11, he refuses to sue for
defamation, but Kerry continues to attempt to prevent fellow
veterans from publicizing their thoughts on his past.

Fortunately, PAX-TV has shown 'Stolen Honor' numerous times
this past weekend, including twice already today and one
more time tonight, Nov. 1st, at 11:30pm CT. This effort has
finally given those who paid for our freedoms with their
blood, an opportunity to share their thoughts regarding
Kerry.

If you have not already viewed this documentary this past
weekend, I urge to to listen for just 30 minutes to Kerry's
fellow veterans, those who served their full time overseas
and didn't leave their brothers until their time was up.

With Veteran's Day just 10 days away, we need to finally
listen to what they have to say about this election, in a
non-partisan forum. Unlike the obviously biased 527's, only
veterans of Vietnam get to speak out in 'Stolen Honor'.

If you miss the showing on PAX-TV, you can also view it
online.

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Religious Beliefs and Ethics

Finally, let us discuss the truth and ethics of this
election. The truth is, for a candidate who claims to be
religious Kerry's beliefs are diametrically opposed to his
own church, except when he flips on a position and tells a
group what they want to hear in spite of everything else he
has stated.

Instead of going into full detail, let me share with you a
prayer first given many years ago to the Kansa State
Legislature and let you decide, how Kerry stacks up.

'When Pastor Joe Wright was asked to open the new session of
the Kansas Senate, everyone was expecting the usual
politically correct generalities. But, what they heard
instead was a stirring prayer, passionately calling our
country to repentance and righteousness.

'The response was immediate and a number of legislators
walked out during the prayer. In six short weeks, the
Central Christian Church had logged more than 5,000 phone
calls, with only 47 of those calls responding negatively.

'Commentator Paul Harvey aired the prayer on the radio and
received the largest response ever aired.

'The Central Christian Church is now receiving international
requests for copies of this prayer from India, Africa, and
Korea.

'Pastor Joes prayer is reprinted here as an encouragement
and challenge for each of us to stand for the truth of the
Gospel whenever the Lord gives us the opportunity.

'"Heavenly Father, we come before You today to ask Your
forgiveness and seek Your direction and guidance. We know
Your Word says, Woe on those who call evil good, but
thats exactly what we have done. We have lost our spiritual
equilibrium and inverted our values. We confess that:

'We have ridiculed the absolute truth of Your Word and
called it pluralism.

'We have worshipped other gods and called it
multiculturalism.

'We have endorsed perversion and called it an alternative
lifestyle.

'We have exploited the poor and called it the lottery.

'We have neglected the needy and called it
self-preservation.

'We have rewarded the laziness and called it welfare.

'We have killed our unborn and called it choice.

'We have shot abortionists and called it justifiable.

'We have neglected to discipline our children and called it
building self-esteem.

'We have abused power and called it political savvy.

'We have coveted our neighbors possessions and called it
ambition.

'We have polluted the air with profanity and pornography and
called it freedom of expression.

'We have ridiculed the time-honored values of our
forefathers and called it enlightenment.

'"Search us, O God, and know our hearts today; cleanse us
from every sin and set us free. Guide and bless these men
and women who have been sent here by the people of Kansas,
and who have been ordained by You to govern this great
state. Grant them the wisdom to rule, and may their
decisions direct us to the center of Your will. I ask it in
the name of Your Son, the Living Savior, Jesus Christ,
Amen."'

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My Election Prognostication

In summary, my election prognostication is as follows.

Ohio has a gay marriage ban on the ballot and based on the
results of every other state that's voted on a similar
issue, over 70% of Ohioans will vote to ban gay marriages.

Of those 70%+, I would be amazed if even 20% of them vote
for Kerry, but even if they do, Kerry would still fail to
get 45% of the vote and would thus lose Ohio, "by a fairly
wide margin."

In Pennsylvania, thanks to Gov. Rendell finally admitting
that he couldn't suppress the military votes received after
Nov. 2nd, Bush could win. If the state ends up with Kerry
leading by 10,000 votes or less, look for the military votes
to tip Pennsylvania Bush's way.

Bush may still lose PA, but it's going to be much closer
than anyone expects, thanks to the military votes.

Finally, in Florida we find that 2 minority goups will swing
the state to Bush by a much bigger margin than in 2000.
Watch for Bush to get all of the Cuban-American vote, along
with an increasing number of Jewish voters.

It definitely helps Bush that Mel Martinez is running for
the Senate seat in Florida, this will help both of them,
just like the gay marriage issue helps Bush in Ohio, just
not by as much of a margin.

These results along with Iowa, Colorado & Nevada all going
Bush's way, will give him a 281 to 257 Electoral College
victory.

If any 2 or 3 of the other close states; Hawaii, Michigan,
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota or New
Mexico, go away from Kerry at the last moment, then Bush
could easily end up with over 300 in the Electoral College.

In our current environment, this would definitely be
declared a landslide! Real Americans, who are putting their
money where their votes are, are giving this election to
Bush, by a 3 point margin (51.3% to 48.3%) according to the
Iowa Electronics Market.

>Up to the minute election update: New Mexico(5) and New
Hampshire(4) are now tied, according to Zogby's latest
polls. Previously, both were in Kerry's column.>

In the Senate, we find that the Republicans are leading in
Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, and South Dakota, (Yes, Daschle is going to lose!)
and Democrats are leading in Alaska, Colorado and Illinois.

While Martinez (R) is currently behind in the Florida polls,
I expect the Hispanic vote for Bush to help win this Senate
seat for the Republicans.

In addition, while I've given Colorado & Alaska to the Dems
and South Carolina and Florida to the Republicans, all 4
should be definite nail-biters. All told though, we will
probably see the Republicans pick up 2 or 3 seats in the
Senate, resulting in a possible 54-46 margin, and no
Daschle!

As I finish up, I do give this warning if Kerry is to either
win or dispute his loss.

If either scenario occurs, Kerry will immediately face
several Vietnam veterans groups who have uncovered material
in the last 2 weeks that could lead to Kerry being
challenged in the Senate, and in the courts, under Section 3
of the 14th Amendment.

The lawsuits and Congressional impeachment process will
swing into action, as Kerry's election will be considered to
be possibly in violation of said Amendment, due to
treasonous activity during his war protest days.

So while I said earlier that Presidents don't necessarily
affect our individual stock choices, enormous uncertainty
caused by Congressional impeachment hearings or Florida 2000
style lawsuits in multiple states can create numerous
headaches for investors.

Kerry could in fact, end up being the first fully elected
President to never serve office! If that doesn't kickstart
some market volatility, nothing will.

For Advisory subscribers, I will have an analysis and
possibly a stock recommendation or two, either Wed. or
Thurs. I would like to try and see which way the election
does end up going, before putting my investment thoughts
together for you all.

Investments good for my mom and you,
Andy Prior